Naked Body Scanner Removal Presents Bearish Opportunity

The last of the X-ray body scanners has been removed by the TSA.  The maker of the devices, OSI Systems Inc. (OSIS) is in the news, so it’s time to look at what kind of strategies are available.

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Implied Volatility in June in 47.93%(+/-5.548) and 45.86% in July (+/-8.002).  There are two options available.

SELL -1 VERTICAL OSIS 100 JUN 13 60/65 CALL @1.37 LMT

BUY +1 CALENDAR OSIS 100 JUL 13/JUN 13 55 PUT @1.00 LMT

The 60 call has a 37.56% chance of being ITM in 22 days.  The spreads are wide so working the order would be necessary.

The calendar is a bearish bet over a longer period and might work out well since the front month volatility is higher.

Entertainment Industry Wants Rootkts, Ransomware, and More

In an interesting piece at Boing Boing, the entertainment industry wants a piece of the APT action.  The report from the Commission on the Theft of American Intellectual Property, coincidentally copyright 2013 by The National Bureau of Asian Research, proposes taking rights management software to the next level.  Not only can one restrict who can open certain files, but now one can scan the hard drive to determine if there is additional IP that has not been paid for.  Not only that, it would legalize password protecting ALL the files on the computer much like ransomware until someone could verify that the law was not being broken.

The real prize is is in Chapter 13 page 81:

Recommendation:
Reconcile necessary changes in the law with a changing technical environment.
When theft of valuable information, including intellectual property, occurs at network speed, sometimes merely containing a situation until law enforcement can become involved is not an entirely satisfactory course of action. While not currently permitted under U.S. law, there are increasing calls for creating a more permissive environment for active network defense that allows companies not only to stabilize a situation but to take further steps, including actively retrieving stolen information, altering it within the intruder’s networks, or even destroying the information within an unauthorized
network. Additional measures go further, including photographing the hacker using his own system’s camera, implanting malware in the hacker’s network, or even physically disabling or destroying the  hacker’s own computer or network.

The entertainment industry is opening up an extremely large can of worms.  First, let us consider that they manage to lobby to have the entertainment industry only exempt from prosecution in these instances.  Our favorite article at Forbes suggests that 50% of the workforce will be freelancers or entrepreneurs by 2020.  A lot of thought doesn’t have to go into discovering how to use this sort of lobbying against the industry that created it.  If 50% of the workforce works for one-person corporations, it is very easy to create an offshore subsidiary as a separate legal entity with separate bank accounts for the purposes of “entertainment licensing”.  

Such nonsense of invading common citizens hard drives would be stopped by mutually Spartacusassured destruction.  All of these offshore subsidiaries could start contracting Hacking as a Service (Haas) at other offshore companies to install ransomware into these mega-corporations as part of intellectual property enforcement.  If the subsidiary collecting royalties is off shore along with the HaaS provider, it makes it very difficult for the entertainment industry to do anything but pay a licensing fee. 

As traders we can follow these patterns and attempt to capitalize on 10-20% movements from short selling the companies getting shut down.  History has shown us that having intruders in your network does not affect stock value to a large degree; however, adding companies to a watch list for ease of reference does not hurt.

While the entertainment industry is proposing outrageous solutions to a problem they have, it is still possible for other professionals to make money if these solutions become law.  These professions stand to benefit:

  • Lawyers  because no mater what happens, lawyers always win.
  • Infosec professionals, both on the offense and defense side
  • Management Consultants who may setup subsidiary companies for the purpose of launching both legal (see Lawyers above) and virtual attacks
  • SMBs who may manage to obtain licensing fees for their “one off” ebook or song being on the wrong network at the wrong time
  • Day Traders who can capitalize on a single day news event where a company’s operating capability is shut down.

The measures proposed by the entertainment industry may never pass.  The industry should hope so.  In less than 5 minutes we have devised a way to create off shore companies bent on collecting licensing fees for misappropriated intellectual property, in a manner that may be in full compliance with the law, and untouchable depending on what country they are located in.  That is something the entertainment industry should understand is possible and relatively easy to setup with today’s technology.

Expected and Unexpected Market Events From AP Twitter Hack

 

The AP Twitter hack created panic on Wall Street. We can look back to the LinkedIn breach and learn that security events can move markets in unexpected ways. As the media reported, all of the major stock indexes experienced a miniature flash crash. We can see this in the S&P and NASDAQ futures. According to Bloomberg, $136 billion in value was set on fire.

The reaction in other markets did not receive as much coverage, but were very interesting. The 30 year Treasury and the Japanese Yen had a near opposite reaction. This is very much like the buy it on a breach behavior that we saw with LinkedIn. Is it surprising Treasuries and the Japanese Yen turn out to be the place to go if something were to happen to The White House and the President and what does that say about the herd mentality? If we view the President as the CEO of the country, it seems a little strange to be buying the “stock” of a company that is in need of a new CEO. Perhaps the market is simply bullish on Joe Biden.

 

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RGR At Resistance

RGR has encountered multiple tops near 52.00.  Support is near 44.00.  It moved outside the two standard deviation Bollinger Band after earnings and appears to be reverting to the mean.  Projection Bands and the Projection Oscillator are indicating overbought for now.  Fundamentals suggest that sales will continue to be high for the next 4 years.  After RGR pulls back and consolidates it will most likely move higher.  The Dec 45/40 Bull Put Spread is currently trading for .80.  Setting a Limit order for 1.45 should enter around 46 or 1.75 for an entry around 45.

 

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PFE Loses Lipitor

PFE is having some problems.  In the news, they are suffering from losing Lipitor exclusivity.  We discovered this one from running a Scan searching for below lower 2STDEV BolingerBand and an oversold Slow Stochastic.  On further examination the DMI negative has crossed above the DMI positive and the Money Flow is still pointing down.    For now this continues to look bearish.  The trade selected is a an ATM  Put Calendar. Front month Vol is 2% higher than the back month.  Not a huge difference, but usable.  The trade also allows for a roll into a Dec Vertical.

BOT +3 CALENDAR PFE 100 DEC 12/NOV 12 24 PUT @.26

PFE

Yahoo Bull Call Vertical

Yahoo has had a rough week.  After gaping down into the mid 14’s there has been a reversal.  There was a short touch of the third standard deviation Bollinger Band and then a positive candle.  We also have two more candles above the second standard deviation Bollinger Band.  This area might be worth taking a bullish entry with the plan for reversion back to the mean.  This could be done with straight stock or with a SEP 15/16 Bull Call Vertical.  The options are liquid, but there may not be enough movement to make a small sized trade worth while.

 

LinkedIn data breach was $1M and a minor inconvenience

It hit the news today that the LinkedIn (NASDAQ: LNKD) data breach cost between $500K and $1M and that the company will be spending $2M-3M in the current quarter to enhance their security measures.  In the larger picture this is a minor bump in the road.  Revenue forecasts have been raised and on 8/2 they announced that top line growth came in at +89% at $228.2 million, beating analyst estimates of around $215 million.  Bottom line income came in at $2.81 million down from 4.51 million in the prior year.  The projected charge for security enhancements may affect next quarter’s earnings, but that doesn’t appear to be bothering anyone.

As we discussed earlier, in Security & Privacy Are Dead And Nobody Cares, investors do not care about minor security breaches.  Sony and EMC suffered only in the short term.  Blowing up an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico seems to harm reputation more than having your corporate or customer secrets stolen.  Revenue is what Wall Street and private equity are looking for.  If the buying public doesn’t care, neither will The Street.  With the economy in the state it is, and the move away from traditional job boards such as Monster World Wide, Inc (NYSE:MWW), LinkedIn will surely drive traffic, ad revenue, and premium subscriptions no matter what data they lose.  We should consider the actual impact of the LinkedIn breach.  Rather than running around screaming they were breached, what was breached should be considered.  In this case passwords to users resumes were disclosed.  Sure, someone could log in as that user and attempt to establish connections with other people for social engineering, etc.  But from the user’s perspective the worst that could happen is someone could make their resume false, or simply delete it, which would mean they need to update their resume again.  So in a way the hackers might have been helpful on some level, depending on who you are in the mix of all this.  Yes, that is an oversimplification for the sake of drama, but ask most users and you will find LinkedIn is not a big deal to them, in many respects.

Technical Analysis

Much to the chagrin of security professionals LinkedIn experienced an uptick in their stock price the day the breach was announced.  Why did this happen? People were logging in to change their passwords and were being exposed to advertising which increased revenue.  The bankers felt that the stock was a buy on that news.  No SecurID seeds were stolen, and no cute dolphins were drowning in oil, which means it’s a buy.  After a nice earnings announcement LinkedIn is on its way back up and has broken out of the trading range it was in.  There’s almost an 80% chance it will touch 115 which is a nice move from 92.50 prior to earnings.  This isn’t the price action in a company that is going out of business because some passwords were leaked or because they’re spending a lot to improve their security.

 

 

 

What is worse than an Infosec breach?

In the scheme of things Infosec breaches are low impact events.  Most companies recover in a few weeks.  Quality problems can cost you even more.    How does a software glitch that loses $450 million and reduces stock value by 80% sound compared to LinkedIn’s problems?  There are larger things that can happen besides an Infosec breach that executives are worried about.  Consumers are also worried about things other than security breaches.  This is one reason why Infosec breaches have lower impact to a stock price than manufacturing or software errors, or accidentally serving up blackened crawfish in oil to gulf coast residents.  Wall Street knows that a little bit of credit monitoring, and banks eating 100% of credit card and account fraud means that consumers will not change their behavior because someone else is paying for their choices.  In economics we call this moral hazard, but that’s a topic for another time.

 

ZNGA Back Ratio

Zynga has been having some trouble since earnings.  After a large gap down it continues to move down.

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How to take advantage of this?  One possible way to attack the topic is with a Back Ratio.  The risk is different in this case since the $0 level becomes the lower strikes of a butterfly spread.  This was trading for a credit a few days ago which makes this trade a no lose strategy.  Over the weekend it’s still a $0 + commissions risk if it stays where it is and if it drops even more it could be worth more.  This should be treated like a lottery ticket Butterfly trade.  It’s somewhat unlikely the price drop into the profitable range, but if it does this could be a winner with a max profit of around $100 per spread.

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