Earthquake Play in CAT

The world is shaking apart and the Japanese may need some heavy equipment to rebuild.  CAT has strong demand anyway, so this could be an opportunity to ride a price spike.  A 1 Standard Deviation move would put CAT at just over 90 by April expiration.  This could be a good opportunity to get in.  CAT would have to pull back by 10% to make this move.  We managed to get in for .47 so this has already had a good move.  Sizing is important if you decide to chase it.

SELL -1 VERTICAL CAT 100 APR 11 90/85 PUT @.39

Stock-Analyze---CAT-2011-03-14

Democracy in the Middle East Bad For Your Portfolio?

 

A colleague mentioned that they overheard someone ranting about the people in the middle east rioting.  Apparently this person’s portfolio was taking a beating because of all the uncertainty there.  There are many ethical issues at play with this approach. Should we cheer for the dictator to protect our portfolio as well as their power?  With the right strategy we can cheer for democracy, delight in the fall of a dictator, and watch our portfolio maintain the status quo or grow even larger.

Don’t Sweat It

If you’re investing for the long run, don’t look at your portfolio! You’ll be like “that guy” who always complains about every little negative mood.  Go outside and enjoy the fresh air, read a book, or do something else with your time.  You haven’t lost any money until you actually sell.

Defend Your Profits

Using Stop Loss orders in this environment is essential.  A Stop Loss is an order to sell if the price of the stock drops to a level you have set.  You can use it to lock in profits.  If you bought something at $50 and the current price is at $80, you can set a stop loss at $70 to lock in $20 worth of gains.  If it suddenly falls from $80 down to $50 you don’t have to do anything.  An order to sell at $70 will execute on the way down.  Wouldn’t you rather sell at $70, make $20 in profit, and then buy it back again around $50?

Sell Everything

If you think the world is going to end, just sell everything, wait for it to bottom out, and then buy the dip. 

Sell Some Things

Pick a few stocks that are doing just OK and would be affected by volatility.  Take your small profit on those.  Don’t let a small gain turn into a big loss.

Sell a Portion

Besides using Stop Loss orders, you can sell half or a quarter of your portfolio positions to lock in those profits.  If things pull back your loss won’t be as big.  You can always buy back in if things start going up again.

Hedge The Portfolio

Hedging is a somewhat advanced topic.  In general you allocate a certain percentage of your portfolio to some short positions that will lessen the impact of a pull back.  Usually this is done using S&P 500 Options or Futures contracts.  For example if 100% of your portfolio is long stock, you may decide to sell 30% of your holdings and then take the proceeds to temporarily buy Put Options on the S&P 500 Index or short the S&P 500 Futures.  The short positions will gain if the index pulls back which will lighten the impact of losses in the rest of your portfolio.  You’ll want to quickly close these short positions out if the market goes up.   Individual investors do have the option of selling everything and sitting out a storm, while fund managers usually have to be 100% in the market at all times. The advantage of hedging is that you don’t have to sell everything to minimize risk, which is great if you have a lot of open positions.

Defeating the Dictator

With the proper hedging strategy it is possible to make money while the stock market goes down.  Not all stocks will pull back if it is a short term market dip.  Some of your positions may continue to go up.  If your hedge goes up more than your losing positions have declined you’ve experienced bi-winning, as Charlie Sheen would say.  It is possible through troubled times to still have a winning portfolio and delight in the fall of the dictator.  That’s having your cake and eating it too.  As for the dictators, we don’t want to “let them eat cake” because that would mean that we would have to share.

Boosting The Economy With Sunday Alcohol Sales

There has been some discussion of legalizing Sunday alcohol sales in Georgia to boost revenue to the state.  Instead of boosting revenue to the state with alcohol, let’s take a look at how alcohol can boost our revenue.  Here are some well known alcohol companies.

 

TAP Molson Coors Brewing Co

Stock-Chart---TAP-2011-02-27

 

BUD Anheuser-Busch Inbev

Stock-Chart---BUD-2011-02-27

SAM Boston Beer Co

Stock-Chart---SAM-2011-02-27

 

HOOK Craft Brewers Alliance

Stock-Chart---HOOK-2011-02-07

 

DEO Diageo Plc

Stock-Chart---DEO-2011-02-27

 

As we can see most of these look pretty terrible.  Good old Sam Adams appears to have some potential opportunity.  It appears to be range bound since the gap up in December.  The low end of support is around 88.  There is a bounce off this with a two day rally.  If it moves above the 50 day it could be a good entry point.  A bull put spread of 90/85 might be a good play for a 1.30 Credit.  Adding another pair of legs on the call side at 100/105 to create an Iron Condor for a .60 Credit could also be a good play after the price rises.  Exiting or hedging each side of the iron condor with a butterfly debit spread can also give you some breathing room.  Earnings will be announced on March 9 so there is risk that SAM could miss or it could have upside risk if we go with an Iron Condor.  These options also aren’t very liquid so there is the risk of not being able to exit if there is movement that doesn’t go our way.  This may be a good time to enjoy a Sam Adams in our glass, but not in our portfolio.

 

 

Stock-Chart---SAM-2011-02-27--trendlines

GMail Disruption Loses Thousands of Accounts

CNN is reporting that a disruption at Google may have caused the loss of 150,000 GMail accounts.  Google is working on restoring the email, but one user in the help forum asks, “What if the cloud fails”?

Most home users have been using “the cloud” since the 1990s via hotmail or through email hosted by their dial-up or broadband ISP.  Today users mostly rely on some kind of web mail for both business and personal communication.  As we have moved away from client applications we rely more and more on the service provider to ensure that we can access our data when we need it using a web browser.  For a small business owner or freelancer loss of data can mean loss of revenue from downtime, if not wiping out your entire business.

One step that users can take is to consider using client applications again. This may seem like a backwards step until you need to access your data while the service provider is down.  GMail works with any program that is compatible with Microsoft Exchange or using the IMAP protocol.

GMail support details how to configure IMAP in your email client.  Since IMAP synchronizes with the mailbox there will be a copy of the email on the server that can be accessed with a web browser or it can be accessed through a client program like Outlook or Thunderbird.  Using IMAP can be a cheap (free) form of insurance in the event that the email provider has a permanent failure.

Small business users may want to consider the benefits of using an email client to keep a copy of their email.  Hard drives can fail or experience a fire, flood, or other catastrophe in both the datacenter and in the home or office.  Keeping multiple copies of email in different locations is one way of protecting your business.

NOA North American Energy Partners Idea

NOA is involved in oil drilling. With the tensions in the Middle East heating up any company that is involved in oil may experience a bounce.  NOA didn’t have a good quarter due to some project delays that ate into revenue.  They could still be a good technical play.

The Weekly chart shows multiple tops near 12.70  A break above 12.80 could go for an extended run.  Multiple tops are usually bearish so it would not be a good idea to jump in without confirmation.  A buy stop above 12.80 might be a good entry. 

Stock-Chart---NOA-2011-02-16

JWN Nordstrom Idea

Nordstrom has been doing very well lately and should continue to rise.

Nordstrom closed Friday at 46.15.  We have prior resistance at 44 which is now support.  It could run up to 50 if earnings go well.

Stock-Chart---JWN-2011-02-13

One thing we can try to do is a long call vertical.

Buy March 46 Call 1.96 Debit
Sell March 49 Call .76 Credit

Total cost is 1.15

Since previous support is 44 we could also sell a Put below it.  We will go with the March 43 which is about 7% lower than the current price.

Sell  March 43 PUT .86

Total Cost is now .27
On one contract we will pay $27 for the opportunity to make $270 which is 10x our pay out.

The downside is that we may have to buy the stock at 43 no matter how far it falls, but Nordstrom isn’t going to zero tomorrow.  If we get an option assignment then we can start selling covered calls to make some revenue from the trade.

Legalizing Retaliation is the Answer to Cyber Attacks

Ellen Messmer at Network World poses the controversial question as to whether cyber retaliation is justified to thwart cyber attacks.  Most information security professionals will agree that it is illegal to counter attack, but should it be?  We are not asking the question of the ethics of cyber self-defense , but questioning current legislation.  The proposal is to simply legalize cyber self-defense and leave it up to the market to determine the best solution.  In the physical world you are allowed to defend yourself from an attacker.  Why not apply the same standards to the cyber world?

 

The Castle Doctrine is one such example of real world defense.  Several states have implemented the Castle Doctrine as part of their legal code.

A Castle Doctrine (also known as a Castle Law or a Defense of Habitation Law) is an American legal doctrine claimed by advocates to arise from English Common Law[1] that designates one’s place of residence (or, in some states, any place legally occupied, such as one’s car or place of work) as a place in which one enjoys protection from illegal trespassing and violent attack. It then goes on to give a person the legal right to use deadly force to defend that place (his/her "castle"), and/or any other innocent persons legally inside it, from violent attack or an intrusion which may lead to violent attack. In a legal context, therefore, use of deadly force which actually results in death may be defended as justifiable homicide under the Castle Doctrine.

A company or personal network can be treated like a castle under the law just as a residence or business office.  Self-defense under the Castle Doctrine also protects the defender from both criminal and civil liability.  This means any person who uses a gun, kitchen knife, baseball bat, samurai sword, fire axe, etc. in defense of their castle can not be charged with a crime and the offender or their survivors are prohibited from filing a civil suit.  The Castle Doctrine also removes the duty-to-retreat from an intruder.  In the technology world we could assume this to mean that an IT department does not have to tune firewalls, perimeter routers, and IPS to mitigate the attack before launching their own counter strike.

Some may say that this does not apply directly to the internet where Company A’s servers may be hijacked and used to direct an attack against Company B.  In actuality it does translate almost perfectly.  In the physical world if Person A coerces Person B into harming or killing Person C, Person C has the right under the Castle Doctrine to defend themselves against Person B.  The type of coercion applied is not relevant to the case since the imminent threat against Person C is Person B, not the manipulation caused by Person A.  In the previous example the cybercriminal is Person A, the compromised system or bot net is Person B. Using the principles above it would be possible to create a cyber Castle Doctrine.

 

Sample Legislation to create a cyber Castle Doctrine

 

Immunity from prosecution; exception

A person or legal entity who uses computer force against an attacking computer system  violating O.C.G.A. § 16-9-93   shall be immune from criminal prosecution.

No duty to retreat prior to use of force in self-defense

A person or legal entity has no duty to mitigate the actions of an attacking computer system prior to using computer force against an attacking computer system violating O.C.G.A. § 16-9-93 

Immunity from civil liability for threat or use of force in defending technology resources

A person or legal entity using computer force against an attacking computer system violating O.C.G.A. § 16-9-93  shall not be held liable to the person or legal entity against whom the use of force was justified or to any person acting as an accomplice or assistant to such person in any civil action brought as a result of the threat or use of such force.

 

The advantages of applying Castle Doctrine to cyberspace are much like those of physical space:

  • Reduces court and law enforcement costs
  • Applies individual responsibility for both perpetrator and defender
  • Fewer people in jail serving time reducing prison costs

 

Creating a Castle Doctrine for cyberspace has numerous advantages.  It effectively increases security by raising the stakes for companies and individuals who do not secure their systems.  In addition to facing downtime from a counter attack, the company risks further embarrassment in court when the defender produces security logs showing that they were defending against an attack from that IP address.  Consumers can quickly gain visibility into which companies are regularly getting compromised and turned into bot zombies from such court records.  They may then assume if intruders control the systems, they probably control customer information contained on those systems.  Even without court records if a company is down from a defender’s counter attacks they will not be able to process data for their customer and will eventually lose customers to companies that consistently do it right.

Placing more responsibility on companies to keep their systems secure will also lead to growth in the cyber insurance market.  Most of the policies I have reviewed are very weak today, but by legalizing cyber self-defense we can create a market for different levels of insurance coverage.  This can benefit companies by allowing them to insure against downtime caused by intruders or defenders.  It will also help financial companies such as Goldman Sachs create derivatives similar to Credit Default Swaps and Credit Default Obligations that can be applied to the cyber insurance industry.

The potential for downtime caused by a defender will also cause retail and institutional investors to direct funds to companies that provide reasonable cyber security.  BP made decisions that increased risk.  It is not known how visible cutting corners was at BP, but Goldman Sachs sold 4.68 million shares of BP just before the Deep Water Horizon exploded.  Security should weigh just as heavily as safety to investors.  Goldman Sachs was correct to offload their BP holdings, just as they would be correct to offload shares of any company that allows its systems to be taken over by an intruder, then taken offline by a defender.

We have several good results that legalizing cyber self-defense bring.  The Internet should have its own Castle Doctrine and allow the private sector to find solutions to the problem of cyber security.  This frees up law enforcement resources and places responsibility where it should be, back in the hands of the individual or individuals that work for a legal entity. 

DDS Dillards Trade Idea

Dillard’s Inc. (DDS) is on a nice uptrend and above all of the key averages.  One way to get in on DDS is to play option verticals.  If we think DDS will continue to go up we can sell a bull put spread against the stock.  A bull put spread is formed by selling one put option and buying one put option below it. 

Stock-Chart---DDS-2011-01-17

 

We’re going to target the February options which are 32 days from expiration.  Using the Risk Profile in Think or Swim we can click on set slices and set the graph to 1 standard deviation from the current price and set the date for 2/18/11 which is February Expiration.  The Risk Profile shows us that 1 standard deviation from the current price is 44.71 and 35.45.  We can create a simulated order where we sell the February 35 Put and buy the February 33 Put and collect a premium of $20 per contract.  This sets our maximum gain at $20 per contract and $180 is our maximum loss per contract. 

 

 

Stock-Risk---DDS-2010-01-17

 

The 20/180 risk reward may sound crazy, but when we move over to the Probability Analysis tab and Set Slices to Break Even we see that our break even price is 34.80.  In order to make money DDS simply has to stay above 34.80.  The probability of it being below 34.80 as of today is 14.23% and above 34.80 is 85.77%.  You can adjust the date forward on this tab to see the probability of success go up as we get closer to expiration.  That is of course assuming everything remains the same.  You can also click the wrench below the date on this tab to change the stock price and volatility to see how that affects the probability of being above 34.80 by February expiration.  86% of being successful is very good odds. 

To calculate our return on investment you take the max loss minus the initial credit (180-20=160) and divide that into the initial credit of 20.  So we have 20/160=.125, or 12.5%.  We have an 86% chance of making 12.5% in approximately 32 days. 

 

Stock-Probability---DDS-2010-01-17

Short Trade Ideas in Retail

 

Interesting setup in JC Penny.  Multiple bottoms near 30 which would indicate strong support.  There is a descending triangle which could indicate a bounce or a break below support.  The 100 SMA is also on a collision course with the support line.  The 10 and 20 SMA are in a downtrend.  Entry strategy could include a short position below 29.90 with a stop market order, or just keep an eye on it.  The triangle appears to be 4 in length from the top to the base.  If there is a drop expect a turnaround at around 26.  A conservative play would be to exit at the 200 SMA.

Stock-Chart---JCP-2011-01-17

 

A little late to the game on Macys.  It gapped down and appears to be on its way to the 200 SMA and previous support at 22.  There may not be much room left in this one before it may see support again.

Stock-Chart---M-2011-01-17

 

Nordstrom is another one to keep an eye on.  It has been in a range and appears to be stuck below the 10,20, &50 SMA.  A move below current support could place it near 40 at previous support.  The 100 MA is upward trending and approaching 40 as well.  It could also break above 44 and continue upward.  Keep an eye on this one or set an alert.

Stock-Chart---JWN-2011-01-17